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Oil Stocks Drilling Results to March 2012
In analyzing oil and gas stocks that trade on the North American stock markets, one of the key factors that determines whether or not the stock will outperform its peers in the various stock markets is how successful the drilling results are to date. With natural gas plunging, oil drilling results become more and more of importance to these stocks trading on the North American stock markets. We have assembled never seen before oil drilling results that are derived from the various provincial registries in Western Canada in order to provide an unbiased view of which oil producers trading on the North American stock markets are having the greatest drilling success. In spending hundreds of hours pulling this data together we also have access to which oil stocks are drilling the most dry holes and having the worse results and have an insight on what stock will be moving up in the stock markets and which stock will be plummeting. Another key factor with natural gas prices reaching 10 year lows is what the actual production composition of the oil wells are as a lot of investors buy oil stocks as they believe they are drilling oil wells, but after reviewing the actual production data on a lot of these wells, they are actually natural gas wells, which will have a huge long-term impact on the oil stocks share price given engineering firms will continue to reduce their natural gas price decks.
With an exclusive relationship with a group of well know former executive and technical staff of oil and gas companies in Western Canada, we have obtained a list of the top 20 oil wells drilled in Western Canada which have production data up to March 2012.
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Well Location
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Producer
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Hours On Production
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Oil Produced (m3)
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Gas Produced (E3m3)
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OIL_RATE (bbl/day)
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GAS_RATE (boe/day)
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|
100030806418W500
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
875
|
11251
|
1956
|
1941
|
317
|
|
100010806418W500
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
1446
|
14350
|
1996
|
1498
|
196
|
|
100040906418W500
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
1636
|
14415
|
2366
|
1330
|
205
|
|
100132506310W500
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
578
|
4320
|
495
|
1128
|
122
|
|
100043306413W500
|
CRESCENT POINT ENERGY CORP.
|
2176
|
14999
|
4084
|
1041
|
266
|
|
100042106418W500
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
1815
|
10084
|
2392
|
839
|
187
|
|
100020806418W500
|
SOUTHERN PACIFIC RESOURCE PARTNERSHIP
|
3670
|
19290
|
1055
|
793
|
41
|
|
195101104026W300
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
3389
|
17635
|
4704
|
786
|
197
|
|
100041706418W500
|
SURGE ENERGY INC.
|
2351
|
11532
|
8859
|
740
|
535
|
|
100110307807W600
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
3354
|
16062
|
3990
|
723
|
169
|
|
100041607709W600
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
2728
|
12836
|
3054
|
710
|
159
|
|
100133506310W502
|
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LIMITED
|
1296
|
6097
|
300
|
710
|
33
|
|
100120601811W400
|
ARCAN RESOURCES LTD.
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1126
|
4722
|
455
|
633
|
57
|
|
100033606310W500
|
PENGROWTH ENERGY CORPORATION
|
392
|
1561
|
35
|
601
|
13
|
|
193071200614W200
|
BIRCHCLIFF ENERGY LTD.
|
3745
|
14396
|
5763
|
580
|
218
|
|
100162106017W500
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
3156
|
11695
|
2098
|
559
|
94
|
|
100162406310W500
|
TRILOGY RESOURCES LTD
|
798
|
2918
|
1587
|
552
|
282
|
|
103131201711W400
|
EXSHAW OIL CORP.
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5112
|
18342
|
11307
|
542
|
314
|
|
100030303203W500
|
CENOVUS ENERGY INC.
|
1392
|
4844
|
660
|
525
|
67
|
Our review of the March 2012 production data shows that Trilogy (TETZF.PK), Crescent Point (CSCTF.PK), Southern Pacific (STPJF.PK), Surge (ZPTAF.PK), Canadian Natural (CNQ), Arcan (ARNBF.PK), Pengrowth (PGH) and Birchcliff (BIREF.PK) drilled some of the top oil wells in the past few months. Feel free to review prior month’s drilling results and see how we predicted Pengrowth’s dividend cut. Further we continue to work with former executives of oil and gas companies to develop industry leading production, reserve, net asset value and capital efficiency reports for our users. This information is invaluable to investors investing in oil and gas stocks as it will also show you the number of dry holes the producers have drilled and also the actual oil and natural gas composition of these wells. This data is an extremely powerful tool for both institutional oil and gas investors and the individual oil and gas investor to identify oil stocks to buy which trade on the North American stock markets.
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Stock Trading the Stock Market – Q1 2012 Precious Metal Stock Review
In our detailed analysis of the precious metal stocks trading on the North American stock markets we see both reasons for optimism that the stocks will improve and concern that there could be additional downward pressure on the precious metal stocks trading on the North American stock markets.
Gold commodity prices remain flat again in Q1 2012 whereby gold prices averaged $1,691 / oz in Q1/12, virtually flat from Q4/11 ($1,683 / oz) and Q3/11 ($1,706/oz), but a 22% increase from Q1/11. Average silver prices increased a modest 3% to 32.64/oz in Q1/12, and only 2% from a year ago.
For the precious metal stocks trading on the North American stock markets, we expect a slight decrease in producer margins, this is a result of flat commodity prices and continued cost inflation. This would mark the second straight quarterly decrease in producer margins for the precious metal stocks trading on North American stock markets after 11 straight quarters of margin expansion.
Local currencies of the precious metal stocks trading on the North American stock markets improved. The currencies in the prominent gold producing countries (Canada, Australia, and Brazil) strengthened modestly in Q1/12 after two straight quarters of decreases. The stronger Australian dollar should continue to put a strain on the profit margins of producers such as Crocodile Gold (100% of production from Australia). The stronger Brazilian real will continue to push costs higher for companies such as Jaguar, Luna (100% of production from Brazil).
The average price for oil, which is a major cost component for the precious metal stocks trading on the North American stock markets, especially those with open-pit operations, increased approximately 10% over Q4/11 and approximately 15% increase over Q3/11.
In analyzing the precious metal stocks trading on the North American stock markets we feel the precious metal stocks with production growth and/or lower cash costs in Q1/12 include:
Allied Nevada – This top gold stock trading on the North American stock markets is expected to announce Q1/12 production of approximately 41,000 oz Au (45,200oz AuEq), up from 38,000 oz in Q4/11, as a result of the Hycroft heap leach expansion efforts. Reported gold sales will continue to be affected by the lack of an offsite carbon stripping partner, which is a temporary issue and will be reflected in an increase in inventory on the balance sheet.
Teranga – This top precious metal stock which trades on the North American stock markets is expecting Q1/12 to be a record quarter for production, even despite the planned shutdowns to tie in equipment for the mill expansion that is expected to be commissioned by the end of April 2012. The mine and mill expansion generates impressive growth in 2012, starting with our Q1/12 production forecast of approximately 15% mor than Q4/11 with cash costs essentially flat from Q4/11.
Stock Trading the Stock Market – Top Gold Stock Market Trade
Allied Nevada, listed on the major North American stock markets, is currently ramping gold production at an oxide leach operation at its Hycroft Mine. This top gold stock market trade also has identified a world-class gold-silver ore body in the sulphide zone below the current mining operations, that, while low grade, could form the basis for a new mine in Nevada. As this top gold stock trade on the North American stock markets proves up the economic viability and size of the sulphide zone as well as lowers the financial risk by successfully developing the Hycroft oxide heap leach mine, there is excellent upside for Allied Nevada.
Read more...
Stock Trading the Stock Market – Top Large Cap Oil Stock Market Trade
Suncor Energy listed on both the TSX stock market and the NYSE stock market. This top large cap oil stock market trade has significant refining capacity and should benefit . This top stock market trade has total refining capacity of ~455,000 bpd which currently exceeds its North American upstream oil production of ~420,000 bbl/d (Q4/11). While many Canadian oil producers will see lower realized prices in Q1/12 due to widening Canadian differentials, this top oil stock market trade’s refining business should provide a natural hedge against this and contribute to strong cash flow.
This top large cap oil stock market trade is generating record cashflow which could set themselves up for a dividend increase. The top oil stock market trade generated $9.7 billion in operating cash flow last year, of which $2.6 billion came from its Refining and Marketing division. We are currently forecasting 2012 operating cash flow of approximately $9 billion but believe there is risk to the upside if refining margins remain at current levels. This top stock market trade had $3.8 billion of cash at year end and should generate over $1 billion of free cash flow this year, which could support a healthy dividend increase.
Read more...
Forecasting the Stock Market – A Glimmer of Hope to What is Thought to Be Impossible
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Although forecasting the future performance of the stock market, and the related securities which comprise the stock market i.e. Stocks, penny stocks, bonds, etfs, mutual funds etc., is extremely difficult, we do want to attempt to provide some optimism that it is possible to predict the future return the stock market will provide.
In the early 1980's several serious scholars of the stock market were predicting that as the rate of inflation come down the stock market would do extraordinarily well. For example, in the fourth edition of his classic book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Malkiel predicted a compound rate of return of 17 percent per year during the decade of the 1980s. In fact, the average compound rate of return for the S&P 500 during the five year period 1982 to 1987 was 17 percent per year. This is one example of how the future performance of the stock market and the related stocks, penny stocks, bonds, etfs and mutual funds has the potential to be predicted.
In addition, by the summer of 1987, on the eve of the October 1987 stock market crash, many market analysts were warning that the stock market was seriously overvalued. The ensuing debacle and stock market crash is now history. |
Read more...
3 Key Steps to Make Money Trading Stocks in the Stock Market
We have been asked by our users as stock market trading experts to identify what we feel are the 3 key steps to Make Money Trading Stocks in the Stock Market
We feel the first key question that needs to be asked is how to save enough capital so the investor has enough capital or money to invest that money into the stock market and trading stocks in the stock market. Whether it be buying stocks, mutual funds or ETFs, they first step is to save enough money so that you can obtain a meaningful return on your investments within the stock market. The first key step in answering the question of how to save, is living within your means and putting some money away on a monthly basis. Be it $250, $500, $5000/month, it is crucial to have a decent source of capital and it requires money to make money. |
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Oilfield Service Stocks Continue to Achieve Record Profitability and Continue to be Some of Our Top Stock Market Trades
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The major oil and gas investment banks are forecasting that the oil and gas producers will have similar capital budgets to what they had in 2011. This results in a very positive outlook for the oil and gas services company stocks as oil and gas service companies are trading at a significant discount within the various stock markets. The median debt to cash flow ratio for oilfield service stocks is around 0.9x where as the intermediate and junior producer stocks are forecast to be around 2 times debt to cash flow. We continue to see step declines on production from the producers and producers will continue to have to expend significant capital with the oilfield service stocks in order to keep production flat. Utilization rates for the oilfield service companies will remain high particularly for the oilfield service companies who are operating in resource plays.
Oilfield Service Company stocks continue to trade around 3 times cash flow on an enterprise value to cash flow basis which makes them extremely attractive. CanElson Drilling trades at one of the lowest discounts at roughly 2.8 time EV/cash flow and is one of our top stock buys. They have a margin for approximately 40% on their drilling rigs and have no current debt which makes them extremely attractive as the risk of them going back to the market for a financing is extremely low.
Another one of our top oilfield service stock market picks is Flint Energy services as they also trade at only 3 times EV/ cash flow and recently announced a $20 million oil sands fabrication contract for a major oil sands producer. The backlog of work as of Q3 2011 in the Facility Infrastructure segment was reported at $740 million in the Company's third quarter earnings release.
For our Canadian investors, both these are great stock buys for your RRSP or TFSA. |
Read more...
The Evolution of Mortgages and Mortgage Backed Securities
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Thirty years ago, it would have been difficult for the average investor to invest in mortgage-back securities, but with the explosion of mortgage-backed securities, almost anyone can now invest in a portfolio of mortgage loans, and these securities have become a major component of the fixed-income market.
Until the 1970s almost all home mortgages were written for a long term maturity, with a fixed mortgage rate over the life of the loan, and with equal fixed monthly payments. These "conventional mortgages" are still the most popular but a diverse set of alternative mortgage designs has developed.
Fixed rate mortgages have posed difficulties to lenders in years of increasing interest rates, because banks and institutions traditionally issued deposits and held long term mortgages, they suffered losses when interest rates increased as they had to pay out more on their deposit accounts but mortgage rates remained the same. The adjustable-rate mortgage was a response to this interest rate risk. These mortgages require the buyer to pay a mortgage rate which varies somewhat with the current market interest rate. Usually, the contract sets a limit, or cap on the maximum size a mortgage rate can change within a year and over the life of the contract. The adjusted rate contract shifts much of the rick of fluctuations in interest rates from the lender to the borrower. |
Read more...
Mortgage Rates – What does the future hold?
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With mortgage rates at record all-time lows, there is only one direction for mortgage rates to go and that is up, the question is, how long will it be until the Federal Reserve starts to increase interest rates which will have a direct impact of when mortgage rates begin to rise. The central bank has kept interest rates close to zero since December 2008 and expanded its balance sheet by buying $2.3 trillion in bonds. This has resulted in three years of all-time low mortgage rates.
Key factors in determining whether interest rates will be adjusted by the Federal Reserve are GDP growth, unemployment rates and inflation rates. GDP growth continues to improve in the US and unemployment rates continue to decline in the US with the unemployment rate closing in on 8%. Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke has set a 2% inflation rate goal for the US economy and has gone on record in being committed to keeping interest rates low for a longer time than initially expected. What this suggests is that mortgage rates will not see a material increase until at least 2013. As a home buyer or someone looking to re-finance their home, the next 12 to 24months is a great time to do so as mortgage rates can not go much lower than 10 basis points. |
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